Investasi ekuitas
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Investasi ekuitas umumnya berhubungan dengan pembelian dan menahan saham stok pada suatu pasal modal oleh individu dan dana dalam mengantisipasi pendapatan dari dividen dan keuntungan modal sebagaimana nilai saham meningkat. Hal tersebut juga kadang kadang berkaitan dengan akuisisi saham (kepemilikan) dengan turut serta dalam suatu perusahaan swasta (tidak tercatat di bursa) atau perusahaan baru ( suatu perusahaan sedang dibuat atau baru dibuat). Ketika investasi dilakukan pada perusahaan yang baru, hal itu disebut sebagai investasi modal ventura dan pada umumnya dimengerti mempunyai risiko lebih besar dari pada investasi situasi-situasi dimana saham tercatat di bursa dilakukan.
Penyertaan Langsung dan Dana terkumpul
Saham yang disimpan oleh individu privat pada umumnya disimpan melalui dana reksa atau bentuk lain dari bentuk usaha khusus untuk investasi dana terkumpul, banyak yang mempunyai harga terpampang di surat kabar keuangan atau majalah majalah bisnis; reksa dana pada umumnya dikelola oleh perusahaan pengelola dana terkenal (contohnya: Fidelity or Vanguard). Dengan melakukan penyimpanan dana seperti itu investor individu memperoleh kesempatan untuk mendapatkan keahlian diversifikasi dana memdapatka keahlian manajer pengelola yang profesional dalam hal pengelolaan dana tersebut. Suatu alternatif umumnya dilakukan oleh investor dan institusi besar (seperti dana pensiun besar) adalah dengan menyimpan saham secara langsung; dalam lingkungan institusi banyak nasabah yang memiliki portofolio sendiri mempunyai apa yang disebut dana segregasi yang berlawanan arti dengan, atau sebagai tambahan, yang terkumpul, seperti alternatif dana reksa.
Kontroversi dalam penyimpanan dana langsung atau melalui bentuk usaha dana terkumpul
Keuntungan terbesar dalam menginvestasi pada dana terkumpul adalah akses kepada keahlian investor yang profesional dan mendapatkan diversifikasi dari penyimpanan pada dana tersebut. Investor juga menerima jasa diasosiasikan dengan dana tersebut seperti, laporan tertulis berkala dan pembayaran dividen (yang mana sesuai). Hal yang cukup merugikan dari investasi pada dana terkumpul adalah pembayaran fee ke para manajer dari dana tersebut ( umumnya harus dibayar pada awal dan setiap tahunnya dan kadang pada saat keluar) dan diversifikasi dana yang mana bisa atau tidak bisa cocok dengan latar belakang kebutuhan para investor.
It is possible to over-diversify. If an investor holds several funds, then the risks and structure of his overall position is an amalgam of the holdings in all the different funds and arguably the investors holdings successively approximate to an index or market risk.
The costs or fees paid to the professional fund management organisation need to be monitored carefully. In the worst cases the costs (e.g. fees and other costs that may be less obvious hidden fees within the workings of the investing organisation) are large relative to the dividend income payable on the stock market and to the total post-tax return that the investor can anticipate in an average year.
Fundamental Analysis and Technical Analysis
To try to identify good shares to invest in, two main schools of thought exist: technical analysis and fundamental analysis. The former involves the study of the price history of a share(s) and the price history of the stock market as a whole; technical analysts have developed an array of indicators, some very complex, that seek to tease useful information from the price and volume series. Fundamental analysis involves study of all pertinent information relevant to the stock and market in question in an attempt to forecast future business and financial developments including the likely trajectory of the share price(s) itself. The fundamental information studied will include the annual report and accounts, industry data (such as sales and order trends) and study of the financial and economic environment (e.g. the trend of interest rates).
How share prices are determined
One theory about equity price in professional investment circles continues is the Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EFM), although this theory is being widely discredited in the academic and professional markets. Briefly, this theory suggests that the share prices of equities are priced efficiently and will tend to follow a random walk determined by the emergence of news (randomly) over time. Professional equity investors therefore tend to spend their time immersed in the flow of fundamental information seeking to gain an advantage over their competitors (mainly other professional investors) by more intelligently interpreting the emerging flow of information (news).
The EFM theory does not seem to give a complete description of the process of equity price determination, for example because stock markets are more volatile than a theory that assumes that prices are the result of discounting expected future cash flows would imply. In recent years it has come to be accepted that the share markets are not perfectly efficient, perhaps especially in emerging markets or other markets where the degree of professional (very well informed) activity is lacking.
Another theory of share price determination comes from the field of Behavioral Finance. In Behavioral Finance, it is believed that humans often make irrational decisions, particularly related to the buying and selling of securities based upon fears and misperceptions of outcomes. The irrational trading of securities can often create securities prices which vary from rational, fundamental prices valuations. For instance, during the technology bubble of the late 90's and subsequent 'burst' in 2000-2002, technology companies were often bid beyond any rational fundamental value because of what is commonly known as the 'greater fool theory'. The Greater Fool Theory holds that because the predominant method of realizing returns in equity is from the sale to another investor, one should select securities that they believe that someone else will value at a higher level at some point in the future.
Related Material
Further Reading
- Chapter 12 of The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, by John Maynard Keynes (Author), 1936.
- Yes, You Can Time the Market!, by Ben Stein (Author), Phil DeMuth (Author), John Wiley & Sons, 2003, hardcover, 240 pages, ISBN 0471430161
- The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, J.M.Hurst (Author), Prentice-Hall, 1970.
- Security Analysis: Principles and Techniques (Second Edition), Benjamin Graham and David Dodd (Authors); (a classis study of how to analyse companies prior to investment).